When nearly-wife turns to me and asks, "Any Black Swans?", she isn't talking about the Oscar-winning Natalie Portman movie. (We talk about that as little as possible, because she loves it and I think it's more or less complete balls.) She's actually referring to a 2007 book by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which was, loosely, about phenomena that come out of nowhere and turn things upside down. It's her way of saying, "Have you thought of everything?" - not quite the radical new approach to political and economic decision-making Taleb was arguing for, but pretty cute.
And she's right: Black Swans aren't above turning up at the church. I put 'wedding' into Google News and came up with a random sample. Behold the Rochester couple who emerged from church to find a heavily-policed hunt protest going on, and had their official pictures taken in front of a sea of wax jackets, yellow vests and red faces. Wince for the Arkansas pair who went to the beach to be photographed and were left floundering in the surf by a freak wave. (The common lesson: if you're going to get Black Swanned, try not to do it on camera.) It's an unpredictable world out there, and one of Taleb's points is that you're more likely to be knocked off balance if you think you've micro-managed things to perfection.
So while she might be onto something, I'm never sure what answer to give her. Have I thought of everything? No. I've identified a standby caterer, but I haven't - until just now - considered what we'd do if aliens blew up Brazil and quadrupled the price of wheat. Swap the blinis for potato rosti, I suppose. Fact is, there's a Hitchcock-sized flock of potential Black Swans outside the front door. A teenage hacker gets grounded in Connecticut, takes down eBay in a fit of anger, and BANG! - the bride's mother misses out on the vintage fascinator she'd set her heart on. Day ruined, believe me.
Too much of this kind of thinking is a little counter-productive, and by 'counter-productive' I mean 'makes me want to barricade myself into the spare room and stuff Blu-Tack in my ears'. There are two reasons people never think of everything: firstly it's impossible, and secondly if it was possible it would drive you insane. In fact, wasn't that the message of Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull? Admittedly not the ideal wedding handbook, but even Natalie Portman fans have to admit it's a more sensible film than Black Swan.
words Nathan Midgley
Copyright WED Magazine 2011
